Treasury Yields Decline
Published December 19, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as investors waited for the latest November consumer price index and digested the latest job report which showed a mixed picture of the U.S economy. Yields continued declining towards the end of the week despite jobless claims coming in lower than expected.
On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 2.7% in November. This fell below analysts’ expectations of a 3.1% gain. The core CPI, which does not account for food and energy prices, rose to 2.6% year-over-year, lower than analysts’ expectations of a 3.0% increase.
“It is possible that this does reflect a genuine drop off in inflationary pressures,” said chief North America economist at Capital Economics, Paul Ashworth. “But such a sudden stop, particularly in the more-persistent services components like rent of shelter is very unusual, at least outside of a recession.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of December 15 at 4.18% and traded as low as 4.11% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.84% and traded as low as 4.78% on Thursday.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 13,000 to 224,000 for the week ending December 13. This was higher than economists’ estimates of 200,000. Continuing unemployment claims fell by 67,000 to 1.90 million. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report for November which indicated the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, an increase from 4.4% in September. The report noted an increase of 64,000 jobs in November. Partial data for October, which was limited by the government shutdown, showed a decrease of 105,000 jobs for the month.
“There is little doubt the labor market is cooling, even after accounting for these nuances in the October and November data,” said senior economist at NerdWallet, Elizabeth Renter. “Federal workers on administrative leave through the deferred resignation program may have had several months to find new work, and they very well may have needed that time. The current job market is not very welcoming to job seekers, with new jobs and overall hiring subdued.”
The 10-year Treasury note yield ended the week of 12/15 at 4.14%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.82%.
